- Enseignant-e: Fabien Cottier
Climate change has been widely portrayed as a 'threat multiplier' in the public discussion around the causes of migration and political violence. Yet, the evidence from scientific research has remained disputed. Complicating any such assessment, migration and political violence are complex phenomena that encompass a large class of heterogeneous events, whose susceptibility to climate change and extreme weather events vary substantially. This course seeks to explore the complex impact that climate change and extreme events have on migration flows and armed conflicts, as two important features of contemporary international politics.
The class will start with a review of the physical aspects of climate change and its impact on affected societies. In the next two sections of the class, we will then examine how climate change is impacting current migration flows and has contributed to shaping conflict outcomes throughout the world. Each of these two sections will start with a review of the key theoretical frameworks around migration and conflict, and examine how environmental change can be embedded within these perspectives. Taking a forward look, the last section of the course will then introduce students to projections of future outcomes, considering the expected global warming over the course of the 20th century.
As a central feature of the class, we will examine the various modeling approaches used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of climate change on migration and conflict. In addition, the class will assume a critical perspective examining both migration and conflict outcomes, as well as (involuntary) immobility and peaceful developments, taking a specific interest in the contextual factors that may give rise to sharply contrasting outcomes. In addition, the class will introduce students to the use of Geographic Information Systems in view of combining both social science and climate science data.
While not a prerequisite by any means, familiarity with statistical modeling/econometrics, geographic information systems, and/or data sciences is an asset for this course.